Modeling the California Current System mesoscale observations: eddy dynamics and limits in predictability


Di Lorenzo E., Miller A.J., Nielson D.J., Cornuelle B.

Scripps Institute of Oceanography


Moisan J.R.

NASA/GSFC Wallops Flight Facility




Hydrographic and ADCP surveys of temperature, salinity and velocity from CalCOFI surveys, altimetric measurements of sea level and drifter observations of temperature and velocity during the 1997-98 El Nino are now being fit using a Green's function technique (strong constraints) with an eddy-resolving ocean model (ROMS) of the Southern California Bight (SCB) region to obtain dynamically consistent estimates of eddy variability and to asses what physics sets the spatial/time scale of predictability in the coastal ocean. Skill evaluations are quantified by the model-data mismatch (rms error) during the fitting interval and after the forecasting of independent data.