A Prototype Nowcast/Forecast System for Prince William Sound, Alaska
Inkweon Bang and Christopher, N.K. Mooers
Ocean Prediction Experimental Laboratory
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science
University of Miami
A Nowcast/Forecast system is under development for the Prince William Sound
(PWS), Alaska and a prototype has been operational for almost one year.
Near-realtime wind observed by NDBC (National Data Buoy Center) buoy 46060
in the central PWS, monthly surface heat flux from COADS (Comprehensive
Ocean and Atmosphere Data Set), monthly freshwater flux derived from a
hydrological model (Simmons 1996), and the monthly volume transport at the
open boundary are driving forces of the ocean model which is based on POM.
Tide is also included at the open boundary for eight constituents, which
were interpolated from Dr. Foreman's (Institute of Ocean Sciences, Canada)
2-D tide model. Three-day run, one day for nowcast and two days for forecast,
is performed everyday and the results are posted at the web. Results are
compared with near-realtime observational data at Valdez for sea level and
at NDBC buoy 46060 for surface water temperature.
A model validation study was performed for 1996 when observational data
were relatively abundant. Comparison with observational data reveals
strength and weakness of the model. Of the weaknesses, bottom-trapped
current flowing northward from the Hinchinbrook Entrance (HE, major
inflow port) and shallow heat penetration need to be more scrutinized.
Also a study with expanded model domain provides an insight into the
factors controlling the flow fields at HE and the Montague Strait (major
outflow port of the Nowcast/Forecast model domain).
Simmons, H.L., 1996. Estimation of freshwater runoff into Prince William
Sound using a digital elevation model. M.S. Thesis, University of
Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska.