HR: 0830h
AN: OS21E-79    [PDF]
TI: Validation of an Atmosphere-Ocean Forecast Model at the Longterm Ecosystem Observatory
AU: * Lichtenwalner, C
EM: sage@arctic.rutgers.edu
AF: Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901
AU: Glenn, S M
EM: glenn@imcs.rutgers.edu
AF: Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901
AU: Arango, H G
EM: arango@imcs.rutgers.edu
AF: Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901
AU: Haidvogel, D B
EM: dale@imcs.rutgers.edu
AF: Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901
AU: Wilkin, J
EM: wilkin@imcs.rutgers.edu
AF: Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901
AB: Results from the Rutgers Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) were quantitatively compared with an independent cross-shelf mooring array to validate available model ensemble schemes. ROMS was run in real-time during the July, 2001 Coastal Predictive Skill Experiment (CSPE) with surface forcing supplied by a high-resolution regional implementation of the Navy's COAMPS model. Available options for surface mixed layer dynamics in summer 2001 included the K Profile Parameterization (KPP) and the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 closures. Real-time satellite-derived sea surface temperatures, CODAR-derived surface currents, and subsurface CTD data from the Rutgers University Long-term Ecosystem Observatory were assimilated to generate an ensemble of 3-day ocean forecasts twice per week for adaptive physical/biological sampling by ships, autonomous underwater vehicles, and aircraft. Each forecast cycle was evaluated in real-time using a stationary continuous CTD profiler. Further validation of the quality of the ocean model forecasts and subsequent hindcasts are being assessed through comparisons with a cross-shelf array of ADCPs and thermistors not included in the assimilation data set. The coastal ocean offshore New Jersey in July is characterized by a strong pycnocline located at a depth of 5-8 m. It responded as a two-layer system to several wind events during the month-long experiment, alternately causing upwelling of cold water or downwelling of warm water at the coast. The strongest wind event of the July 2001 CPSE was the formation of a low-pressure system that moved quickly offshore to the east. The downwelling favorable winds were observed to rapidly force the resulting bottom front through the cross-shelf validation array. Quantitative model metrics for a two-layer system were developed to evaluate model performance using the independent cross-shelf mooring array. The result is an extensive database for the evaluation of different closure schemes, data assimilation methodologies, and boundary conditions. Preliminary comparisons with the real-time ocean forecasts indicate that the KPP closure scheme reproduced the timing of the upwelling and downwelling events with sufficient accuracy to improve adaptive sampling during the experiment.
UR: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool
DE: 4255 Numerical modeling
DE: 4263 Ocean prediction
SC: OS
MN: 2002 Ocean Sciences Meeting